Saturday, 9 September 2017

Anohito statistical tests

The hunt for Anohito (left: Chapter 4; right: Chapter 9)

If you have read through my posts, you will notice that I have collected and reviewed up to 14 Anohito aspects in Candy’s “present day” monologue. In my latest post, I said that out of the 14 aspects, 11 of them are only attributable to Terry, 3 of them are attributable to both Terry and Albert, and none is attributable to Albert only. Thus… what does it look like if I plug those numbers into a statistical program? Does the proportion of Terry-related aspects (11 out of 14) significantly overwhelm both-Terry-Albert aspects (3 out of 14)?

The fact that there is no Anohito aspect that refers only to Albert in Candy’s monologue already established that Terry is Anohito. However, just to satisfy some statistical curiosity, let me plug those numbers.



I gather that our moderator Nila might find this funny...(source)

I arranged the data as follows, with 14 Anohito aspects as the cases. The variable to test is “Anohito”, a categorical variable with two categories (0 = “Can be Terry or Albert” and 1 = “Terry”).  I did not include a category for Albert because I did not find any Anohito aspect that is solely attributable to Albert. Please read this post to read my analyses of Anohito’s voice, smile and open arms (Aspects 12-14). Read this post for my analysis of Aspects #8 (Anohito laughing at Candy’s mistake) and #10 (the heat of Terry’s chest). Read this post for my summary of Nee-chan's Japanese blog post for the other aspects.




For your convenience, I re-write the aspects here:

1. Anohito obtained Slim's painting (Prologue) -- either Albert or Terry
2. Anohito's heirloom box (Vol 2, p. 148-149) -- either Albert or Terry
3. River Avon (Vol 1, p. 230-235) -- Terry
4. Daffodils (Vol 1, p. 230-235) -- Terry
5. Many painful separations, but reunion is possible when alive, thus Candy no longer fears separations (Vol 1, p. 230-235) -- Terry
6. Candy's reluctance to leave Anohito and vice versa  (Vol 1, p. 230-235) -- Terry
7. Anohito's reaction on Candy being a stowaway (Vol 2, p. 148) -- Terry
8. Anohito laughed at Candy's mistake of judging people by appearance (Vol 2, p. 196) -- Terry
9. Shakespeare books (Vol 2, p. 197) -- Terry
10. The heat of Terry’s chest is still violently pulsating within Candy (Vol 2 p. 237) -- Terry
11. Anohito fixed Stear's music box (Vol 2, p. 238-239) -- either Albert or Terry
12. Epilogue Anohito's voice -- Terry
13. Epilogue Anohito's smile -- Terry
14. Epilogue Anohito's open arms -- Terry


I conducted a Non-Parametric Chi Square to test whether the proportion of “Terry” within the sample (11/14) is statistically the same with the proportion of “Can be Terry or Albert” (3/14). I used IBM SPSS ver 24 to analyse the numbers.

My hypothesis is as follows:

H0: The proportion of Terry and Terry/Albert is 50:50 (p=0.5)
H1: The proportion of Terry and Terry/Albert is not 50:50 (p ≠ 0.5)

The result is as follows:



With p value=0.033 (alpha level 0.05), we can conclude that the proportion of “Terry” (11/14) is significantly different, in this case larger, than the proportion of “Can be Terry or Albert” (3/14). Thus, Anohito is Terry.

I did actually run a t-test (Nila likes to call it “Terry-test”, and I actually agree…), and the t-test yielded p value=0.000 for Terry. However, since our data is categorical, and t-test is valid only for interval data, I did not upload the t-test result here.

I did also calculate the z-score manually to test our hypothesis. This website gives a good example of how to conduct a z-test for proportion. The formula to calculate the z-score for proportion is:





So, we have:

Terry = 11;
Terry or Albert = 3
n=14
Expected proportion (p0) = 0.5
For alpha level 0.05, we reject Ho if |z| > 1.96
Observed proportion for Terry (that's the p with the cap) = 11/14.





Since our z score is 2.138, it is larger than 1.96. Thus, we reject H0. We reject the notion that the number of Terry aspects is the same as the number of Terry/Albert aspects.

Thus… Terry is Anohito… ^_^


15 comments:

candyterry said...

LOVE LOVE LOVE your statistical analysis and conclusion! TERRY IS ANOHITO! No question about it! Thanks so much for demonstrating scientifically and concretely what we TG fans have known in our hearts. (^_^)/

Candy Candy Nation said...

Excellent work, Icha- Yet another statistic piece that supports Terry as Anohito! I had done a mention analysis, which proved that Terry is the most mentioned name after Candy in CCFS - surpassing both Anthony and Albert combined. Chi-square and z-score are more spohisticated, of course glad you ran them. Keep up the great work! Lady Gato >^..^< @ candycandynation

Anneth White said...

both analysis are just perfect!!! a perfect example to show how qualitatives variables can be analyzed under quantitative´s one making the study so objetive!!!!

CONGRATULATIONS... you gave the statistical bases for our conclusions after Reading CCFS!!!!

I also agree with the categorization of the varibles stating which ones could be related only to terry or to both,

But i have some things about those shared by both. I don´t think are because:

1. The Slim painting of Pony´s from the hill!! the paint is a memory of something that is so loved by Slim, and by Candy, they have their childhood memories of it!! Albert was there but didn´t care of Pony´s in the two ocassions he was there, being a teenager he had to run going away of Georges. In the other ocassion, also Georges was waiting for him to go to work (when he confessed Candy he was the prince). We know he helped with the remodelation of the house, but we don´t know if he went again to the hill to see it with his memories. But we know Terry went there, and visited every part of it from the home to the hill. And the most important thing for me: the first time we know part of the new story will be in Great Britain was in the first page of CCFS, just with this painting reference and also with the name of the city: LONDON!!!!! AND LONDON IS TERRY!!!! so for me Nagita wrote from the begining the name of Candy´s husband asociated to that city!!!

2. About the heirloom box, it is so clear that goes from one generation to other as part of an antient and traditional Family. And that family is Granchester, a very old and powerful one. In the old novels is so clear that the Andrew´s head came from Scotland and there he and his family were country bumkin, Nagita obscure that i CCFS, but repited that in the 78-79, 1990 and 2003 editions (you can find all the translation in Nila´s pages!)


3. The music box was made by Stear, knowing Candy will find her happiness when she was going to meet Terry in N.Y. Stear knew both were in love. So that music box is linked to Terry-Candy relationship. and in Candy´ present she is happy, with the man she loves, and the box is fixed and working, so you have two ítems of three to relat: Candy + music box + Candy´s husban... sure terry. Albert does not have any relationship with that music box. Candy never showed it to him (in the anime or manga...)

However considering this or no... still Terry is anohito, we have no doubts abou that.

Hugs dear Icha I like so much your analizys, congratulations!!!

P.D. my English is not so good, so sorry for the mistakes!!(my first language is Spanish!)

Anonymous said...

Indiscutiblemente. Terry es Anohito

Icha said...

Hi Ladies, thanks a lot for the visits and comments! Anneth, thanks a lot for the thoughts about the combo Terry/Albert aspects, truly appreciate it.

However, after re-examining the clues, I still don't think that Slim's painting, the heirloom box and the music box can be solely assigned to Terry. I disagree with the notion that Terry only visited Pony's Hill in the winter, hence he couldn't recognise it in the springtime. Terry was an actor, he had excellent memory for his job, thus he would be able to remember the shape of Pony's Home from the Hill pretty easily. In this aspect, we agree that Terry can be the Anohito who bought Slim's painting. However, Candy herself has written to Albert about his repeated visits to Pony's Home after she realised he was also Prince of the Hill (she wrote as such in her last letter to Albert). I don't believe that Albert wouldn't take time to hike up the hill and enjoy the surroundings. Knowing Albert, he would do that, and he would inevitably recognise the shape of Pony's Home from the hill. Also, I don't think that London can be assigned only to Terry. Albert also visited London for business (disguised as the vagabond Albert), and he's very good at fixing things (thus having him fixing Stear's music box is very plausible).

About the heirloom box, the Japanese script only said:

あのひとの家に代々伝わる小ぶりの宝石とマザーオブパールで装飾された大きな象嵌細工の宝石箱

Anohito no ie ni daidai tsutawaru koburi no hōseki to mazāobupāru de sōshoku sa reta ōkina zōgan-zaiku no hōseki-bako.

"A large inlaid jewelry box decorated with small jewels and mother-of-pearls, passed to him through generations of his family"

Theoretically, Albert's Scottish grandfather could buy the jewellery box when he became rich, and thus passing it to Albert's dad, who gave it to Albert. Thus, three generations. Thus it is still possible for Albert to give Candy the heirloom box, although Terry giving it is more plausible....

Because all other aspects point out to Terry as Anohito, then naturally Terry also obtained the painting, gave Candy his heirloom box and fixed Stear's music box. But examined on their own, I still am not convinced that the painting, the heirloom box and the music box are only attributable to Terry...

Having said that, as you said, even without the three aspects, Anohito is still indisputably Terry, so it's still great for us!


Magda Vidales said...

Hello, I'm very impressed with your post. I'm sure that Terry is Anohito without a doubt. However, and this is not with any bad intention to increase the chances to say that Albert could be Anohito, it's just to be more honest and fair, I belive that your fact numbers 7 and 8, could apply to Albert too. But anyway, even adding two more aspects to Albert's personality, it keeps the same result of you analysis.
Thank you for sharing this.
Sincerely Magda Vidales

Magda Vidales said...

Hello, I'm very impressed with your post. I'm sure that Terry is Anohito without a doubt. However, and this is not with any bad intention to increase the chances to say that Albert could be Anohito, it's just to be more honest and fair, I belive that your fact numbers 7 and 8, could apply to Albert too. But anyway, even adding two more aspects to Albert's personality, it keeps the same result of you analysis.
Thank you for sharing this.
Sincerely Magda Vidales

Magda Vidales said...

Hello, I'm very impressed with your post. I'm sure that Terry is Anohito without a doubt. However, and this is not with any bad intention to increase the chances to say that Albert could be Anohito, it's just to be more honest and fair, I belive that your fact numbers 7 and 8, could apply to Albert too. But anyway, even adding two more aspects to Albert's personality, it keeps the same result of you analysis.
Thank you for sharing this.
Sincerely Magda Vidales

Icha said...

Hi Magda, thanks a lot for your comments. I'm sorry that you might think something went wrong with your comment; I just had to moderate any comments to avoid spams.

I truly appreciate your fairness in thinking that aspects #7 (Anohito's reaction for Candy as a stowaway) and #8 (Anohito laughing at Candy's mistake) could be assigned to Albert as well.

However, I believe that #7 is attributable only for Terry:
https://freckledtarzan.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/candy-candy-final-story-summary-of.html

(I should have put that link instead of the other link about the recap; that recap link wasn't explaining my justification for the stowaway thing clearly).


and #8 is also only for Terry:
https://freckledtarzan.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/two-more-clues-for-terry-as-anohito_7.html

and those analyses are based on Terry's and Albert's past habits.

Again, I appreciate your objective attitude, thus even we disagree, I still like it that you dropped your comment here. Thanks!

Anneth White said...

Hi Icha,

About Ponny´s hill memories, I am based in the retrospection Candy talks about Terry visiting Pony´s home... he stayed there looking at any ítem (threes, house, the hill) in detail. so it doesn´t matter he didn´t go in Spring, he could see Pony´s from the hill. Also its church that is so characteristic, according to the anime or manga. At the end Candy sais that from that day the Hill and the route is more valious for her, knowing Terry visited it (practically she annulate the memories of the prince, after that, because now she things in Terry when see those places, and the trees!)

Well, if you separate the other two ítems... probably could be Albert buying the paint, and fixing the box music. But definetively not as Candy´s husband, because there is not evidence for a romance, not even in the epilogue´s letters. We can´t separate them following the story. But i understand that you need to do that for the Statistical Analysis... Still with this three ítems shared... the statics sustent the Terry-Anohit hypothesis (just lovely...!)

Hugs dear!!

Icha said...

Hi again, Anneth!

Thanks for referring to the part where Candy talked about how Terry visited the Hill etc. That certainly adds to the dimension of Terry as the person who could have bought the painting for Candy.

However, what I am looking for is a factor that cancels out the possibility of Albert as the one who bought the painting - as a standalone variable. I have no doubt that Terry could have purchased the painting due to his excellent memory. But Albert would have visited the Hill many times as well after he revealed himself as the Prince of the Hill; Candy said so herself in her last letter to Albert. Okay... she did not specifically say that Albert visited the Hill, but since Albert visited Pony's Home, it's not far fetched for him to walk up the hill as well.... And during his repeated visits on the Hill, he would undoubtedly pay attention to the shape of P's Home at least once (George honking the car notwithstanding...).

Thus, Albert has similar chances to recognise the shapes of the Home.

I'm by no means advocating that Albert is Anohito... but I fail to reject the hypothesis that Albert can also be Anohito. That's why I still place Slim's painting as an uncertain variable... I wish I could change my view, but at the moment that's how I see it...

Which is why I'm so happy I finally realised that Aspect 8 (the heat of Terry's chest is still pulsating within Candy) truly is written in the present tense. I have to say that this aspect is THE most important evidence that Terry is Anohito, for why would Candy feel that way, in the present tense, if Albert is her husband...

I have another post I'd like to make this weekend about the Epilogue for Terry's case... it's not the stronger argument for Terry as Anohito (compared to "the heat of Terry's chest"), but it's an interesting food for thought...

thanks again, Anneth, I truly enjoy our discussions despite our slightly different opinions!

Anneth White said...

Hi dear Icha, I really like to disscuss with you, not matter we don´t agree in all what we say.

About Slim´s painting here are the arguments that for me is associated to Terry:

a) It was bought in a fleemarket in London. Terry is an actor, if he went to play Hamlet before he had enough time to visit his town, and specially those fleamarkets full of history and art!!

Albert after being presented with his family only have time to work, we know he didn´t have time to stay with Candy at pony´s when confesses was the prince, nor could go to celebrate her birthday at pony´s. He didn´t have time to talk to her at the hotel inauguratio also (a Candy´s comment in the old letters). So it seems that once he accepted to be the head of the family formally he lose his freedom. So i hardly believe he goes to a fleamarket being in London. George won´t allow him (I as smiling here...)

b) The painting was bought in London= Terry´s city, for me this is a huge evidence is him!!! if it said it was bouhgt in Chicao I will believe Albert bought it...

c) the only thing that remains in Candy´s present is the old church that can be seeing from the hill, Candy sais that in the retrospección of the firs volumen, talking about Anthony´s dead and going out to smell the daffodils. Terry was in the hill seeing from there Pony´s home and the church. And Candy mention, that was the only thing anohito had to see to find out was Pony´s home!! so it is a memory of a place so loved, because is Candy´s home, that is a feeling of a lover (Terry), not a friend (Albert....)

d) Candy´s husband looked for the best place to have it at her home, allowing her to see it all the time!! so it is like asking forgiveness for she being in Avon, so far from her childhood home. There is no explanation for Albert doing that... he is from chicago, he has no need to have Candy so far from her ill mother... But Terry is an actor, if he lives in upon Avon Stratford, he Can´t move from her work place... and Candy doesn´t want to be apart from him. So the gift of her husband (Terry is the best of all).

What do you think?

Hugs dear!!!!






Icha said...

LOL hello back, Anneth!

Thanks for your arguments for Terry... although my analytical mind is looking for the argument that support the notion that Albert could not possible have obtained the painting. So far, though, in all my objectivity, I have to retain my hypothesis that Albert could have purchased the painting.

"Albert after being presented with his family only have time to work, we know he didn´t have time to stay with Candy at pony´s when confesses was the prince, nor could go to celebrate her birthday at pony´s. He didn´t have time to talk to her at the hotel inauguratio also (a Candy´s comment in the old letters). So it seems that once he accepted to be the head of the family formally he lose his freedom. So i hardly believe he goes to a fleamarket being in London. George won´t allow him (I as smiling here...)"

However, Albert worked at the Zoo in London, and also went to Africa. George had limited say in what Mr William can or cannot do, for Albert is the head of the family. Going to a flea market is an easy trip for Albert; he could be passing the market on the way to have lunch or something like that.

Also, when discussing about something else with Nila, I realised that Albert actually helped renovating Pony's Home for Candy et al. He would have visited the house several times, also looking at it from the hill's vantage point to see its possible future shape post-renovation.

"d) Candy´s husband looked for the best place to have it at her home, allowing her to see it all the time!! so it is like asking forgiveness for she being in Avon, so far from her childhood home. There is no explanation for Albert doing that... he is from chicago, he has no need to have Candy so far from her ill mother... But Terry is an actor, if he lives in upon Avon Stratford, he Can´t move from her work place... and Candy doesn´t want to be apart from him. So the gift of her husband (Terry is the best of all)."

I agree with this argument, because Stratford upon Avon is very much linked to Shakespeare. In motivation, Terry definitely scores as Anohito, because he wanted Candy to have a memory of her childhood home.

However, if we talk about someone who recognised the SHAPE of the house, Terry and Albert both score on that aspect. Terry scores because of his excellent memory, while Albert scores because he would often go up the hill after revealing himself as Prince of the Hill to Candy.

Thus... to me, it's still a draw...

I'm truly sorry my dear... as much as I love Terry, the painting is still the most obscure thing for the Terry=Anohito argument... to me...

Anonymous said...

Good to you to be objective.. But still there so many points that you didn't mention, such as the rose in Candy's garden, the handmade frame of Slim's painting, when exactly Candy told her story as a stowaway, also when was the Candy music box repaired, when and where did Candy exactly know about Shakespeare plays (that wasn't in Terry's villa. Nope, that was before she went to London if you understand very well the story). And still many for you to find. I just can help you a little which I've mentioned. But still there many. It will be about 30 points. Good luck!

Anonymous said...

In my humble opinion the painting is primarily related to Prince on the hill!
I have tried many times to see it connected to Terry but the only thing that seems to create a link between Slim's painting and Terry is the fact that during a snowy day, after leaving Saint Paul Academy for good, Terry decides to visit Candy's birth place, so he actually sees it, and could probably be able, to recognize it among other paintings at the flee market, however, no other link is really possible here. On the other hand the picture, portraing a beautiful spring day, is the image of a very specific day, the day when Candy's life changed, the day when she met the prince. In a way the picture represents exactly the drawing in the manga that shows Candy meeting the prince, but because Final Story is totally deprived of drawings, for the reasons we all know, Nagita has resorted to Slim's painting to describe exactly the same scene. Having said that, potentially both Terry and Albert could have found the painting at the flee market and recognize Pony's home, even if I think that Albert has seen the place (Pony's home and Pony's hill) more often than Terry, but to whom do you think this portrait represents something important, a special day in his life, Terry or Albert? Further more who share this image with Candy in his heart.
What I mean to say is simply this Nagita has used the painting to give the readers the same image they would find in the manga, but she kills two birds with one stone here, since also Terry has seen Pony's home once, he could virtually recognize it, however I don't think Nagita really refers to him.